Speed Runs

The name for this statistic isn't really good but I think the content put into it gives you some good results.  The reason I went about trying to measure how many runs a player gained on the bases was I need for some research I'm doing.  I'll eventually study the issue:

How well does speed correlate with outfield defense?

So, I needed a speed metric and this is the result of that.  I think this metric works well enough to study the question I want to look at.  Without farther ado here is the formula.  All the values for Stolen bases, Caught stealing, and Triples are based off of Linear Weights values to run scoring. 

A Factor:

Stolen Bases times .18
Caught Stealing times -.48
SB-CS values

The result is the A factor.

B Factor:

Triples times 1.07

The result if the B factor.

C Factor:

Grounded into Double Play %  (GDP/GDP opportunities)

5 to 10%: +6 runs
11 to 12%: +1 run
13 to 14%: 0 runs
15 to 17%: -1 run
18 to 20%: -3 runs
21 to 26%: -6 runs

The result is the C factor

Then with those three factors the formula would be:

A+B-C minus 5 at the end

I think this formula works pretty well for evaluating a player's speed in more ways then just base stealing.

Walking you through an example...

Mike Trout will be our example

Stolen Bases: 33 times .18
Caught Stealing: 7 times -.48

5.94-3.36: 2.58

A Factor Value: 2.58



9 triples times 1.07: 9.63

B Factor Value: 9.63



8/127: About 7%

C Factor Value: 6


2.58 + 9.63 + 6= 18.21
18.21-5=13.2

Mike Trout had 13.2 Speed Runs in 2013.

Thanks for reading.  I'll start to get a post or two ready on if speed correlates with outfield defense.