Corner Outfielders in 2013 and their Fielding

 

This is the Corner Outfield part in my quest to make a reliable defensive metric.  I have currently done shortstops and now corner outfielders.  Fielding Linear Weights is the name of my metric. 

 

Name	FLW	DRS
Starling Marte	-3	20
Marlon Byrd	6	12
Giancarlo Stanton	-4	-7
Jay Bruce	29	18
Yasiel Puig	3	10
Jose Bautista	-1	4
Alfonso Soriano	5	1
Drew Stubbs	0	-6
Nelson Cruz	-2	-3
Torii Hunter	8	-10
Shane Victrino	28	24
Nori Aoki	6	13
Josh Reddick	8	13
Ichiro	9	7
Hunter Pence	9	-7
Yoenis Cespedes	5	4
Alex Gordon	29	16
Dominic Brown	-12	-7
Justin Upton	-2	-8
Bryce Harper	1	4
Carl Crawford	2	1
David Murphy	14	8
J.B. Shuck	2	0
Dayan Viciedo	-10	-5

 

So, these are the results.  Over the last few weeks I’ve been working on measuring Left and Right fielders defense.  Using putouts, assists, errors, double plays, and strikeout data for teams, and Groundball/Fly ball adjustments I’ve developed a formula that has given me good results.  You might be wondering why I didn’t lump CF in with these two positions and there are two reasons for this.   

 

A)    I don’t know quite how to do them yet.

 

B)     The formula couldn’t be the same as LF and RF

 

 

I’ll probably come back for centerfielders soon but for now I’ll be sticking with corner outfielders.  The formula is pretty easy to understand.  You can be the judge of its accuracy.

 

Putouts (* .25) + Assists (* 6) + Double Plays (* 8) / Errors ( +1 *1.5) minus 7

 

This is essentially the ‘A’ factor.  The B factor is Range Factor. 

 

Range Factor RF Chart

 

 

Range Factor	Runs (+,-)
2.00-2.10	0 runs
2.11-2.20	+ 3 runs
2.21-2.30	+ 7 runs
2.31-2.50	+ 10 runs
2.51-3.00	+ 13 runs
1.90-1.99	- 3 runs
1.89-1.80	- 7 runs
1.79-1.70	- 10 runs
1.69-1.60	- 12 runs
1.59-1.40	- 16 runs

 

Range Factor LF Chart

 

Range Factor	Runs (+,-)
1.88-1.95	0 runs
1.96-2.00	+ 3 runs
2.07-2.20	+ 7 runs
2.21-2.30	+ 10 runs
1.88-1.78	- 4 runs
1.77-1.67	- 8 runs
1.66-1.58	- 12 runs
1.57-1.41	- 15 runs

 

Then the C factor is how many batters each team strikes out.  The thinking behind this is if a team strikes out a lot of batters then the fielders will get less chances with the ball.  This is adjusted for by the following chart.  There are no set standards for the amount of runs + or – just me making guesses based on the average in the MLB strikeouts per team.  (The Twins had the lowest with 985 SO, so they get runs subtracted from their FLW totals, The Tigers had the most with 1428 so they get runs added to their FLW totals) 

 

Teams	Strikeouts	Runs (+,-)
Royals	1208	-1
Tigers	1428	+5
A’s	1183	-2
Rangers	1309	+ 3
Rays	1310	+3
Red Sox	1294	+2
Indians	1379	+4
Yankees	1233	0
Orioles	1169	-2
White Sox	1249	+1
Angels	1200	-1
Mariners	1297	+2
Blue Jays	1208	-1
Twins	985	-8
Astros	1084	-6
Braves	1232	0
Pirates	1261	+2
Dodgers	1292	+2
Reds	1296	+2
Cardinals	1254	+1
Nationals	1236	0
Marlins	1177	-2
Mets	1209	-1
Brewers	1125	-3
Cubs	1184	-2
Giants	1256	+1
Diamondbacks	1218	0
Padres	1171	-2
Phillies	1199	-1
Rockies	1064	-2

 

 

 

  The D factor has Groundball/Flyball adjustments inserted. 

 

Groundball %	Runs (+,-)
44-45%	0 runs
46-47%	+3 runs
48-50%	+7 runs
51-55%	+10 runs
42-43%	-4 runs
41-40%	-8 runs
39-35	-10 runs

 

And that’s all the formula.  The results follow this formula.  For 2012 and back results go to my blog at regresstothemean.blogspot.com

 

Now looking over the results gives some interesting finds. 

 

Starling Marte.  His runs saved in Fielding Linear Weights is -3.  DRS says +20.  Let’s get into the numbers. 

 

Starling Marte	Putouts	Assists	Double Plays	Errors	FLW	DRS
	176	5	0	6	-3	20

 

He did not have a good defensive season by any of those stats expect DRS.  Why does DRS rate him so high?  As you probably know Defensive Runs Saved uses actual video and bins to determine how many runs they saved.  Not anything to do with putouts, assists, errors or any number.  I could be wrong on that but that’s how I interoperated the methodology behind it.  I don’t understand how somebody could come to the conclusion he was the best LF in baseball but I say he’s one of the worst.  If you think -3 is low, before the Strikeout/Groundball/Fly ball adjustment he was rated -15.  The point of the matter is he isn’t very good at defense.  At least in 2013. 

 

Jay Bruce is a good fielder.  I had actually before constructing this system, never knew anything about Bruce as a fielder.  And if I don’t know anything about a player’s defense then you would assume they are about an average defender.  That is far from the case with Bruce.  Here is a look at Bruce’s 2013 defensive stats.

Name	Putouts	Assists	Double Plays	Errors	FLW	DRS
Jay Bruce	330	13	3	3	29	18

 

Yasiel Puig before Groundball/Fly ball I believe was rated as -2.  I think that was a pretty accurate rating on him.  Some of the younger defensive outfielders that have burst on to the scene like (Trout, Puig, Harper, Stanton, Marte,) are rated quite poorly by my metric and DRS.  You would not get that type of feeling if you just watched games however.  The reason I think that is because all the players I listed are so exciting and flashy.  Other guys like Jay Bruce aren’t very exciting.  Those guys I believe would be overrated by the casual fan with no knowledge of defensive metrics. 

 

The largest fly ball and the largest groundball staffs in 2013 were surprisingly the A’s and Pirates.  This affected Cespedes, Reddick, and Marte quite a bit.  Before those adjustments you would have a got lot different messages about these players then you do now.  It amazes me how some people have attempted to make defensive metrics without adjusting for these things.  They are very important.     

 

All the other players I think are pretty straight ford I believe.  Thanks for reading.