Total Runs for Beginners

NOTE: This is can also be found at beisbols.org which I now submit articles to.

 

About a year ago I was poking around the Fielding Bible Volume Three and I came across an interesting chapter.  It was about a stat they called Total Runs.  Basically it combines hitting, fielding, base running contributions and one positional adjustment.  I have since added other things to it but we’ll get to that later.  I created a little mini introduction to it on a Microsoft Word document and here is my original take on it. 

 

Total Runs First Thoughts

 

A baseball player isn’t just a hitter, or a fielder, or even a base runner.

He's all of these things.  How can we measure this is in a run form.

 

Run Form?

What I mean by run form is that it is in the form of runs and not Wins like WAR attempts to do.

 

Formula?

The formula for this metric is

Runs Created+ Defensive Runs Saved+ Base running Runs+ Positional Adjustment

For the Positional Adjustment we use the following method.
Catcher:42 runs
First Base:13 runs
Second Base:32 runs
Shortstop:36 runs
Third Base:25 runs
Left Field:19 runs
Center Field:29 runs
Right Field:20 runs
DH:-7 runs


Now let's see some of the more interesting results, from 2012 stats,

Results

Based on 2012 stats, we see the following. 

Darwin Barney is an interesting case.  Barney's worth to his team in the form of Total Runs went like this.
Barney Runs Created:60
Barney DRS:28
Barney Base running runs:4.3
Barney Positional Adjustment:32 runs

Barney Total Runs: 124.3

This is actually quite a high total, mainly because of his defensive contributions.  You will be shocked to know what I figured next though.

Miguel Cabrera on 2012 stats is an interesting case also.

Cabrera RC:123
Cabrera DRS:-4
Cabrera BsR:-2.9
Cabrera Positional Adjustment:141.1 runs

The Total Runs separating them?  16.8 runs...

Barney is an extreme under rated based on this metric, or is it saying Cabrera is overrated?  No matter the reason, I think this stat is a very good one.

 

Conclusion:

 

It seems to be a decent metric, perhaps rating Barney rather high and Cabrera rather low but I like what the metric contains to it.

 

Back to July 2014 now, you can Darwin Barney is actually not really that good.  His current OPS+ for his career is 69 (100 is average) and Miguel Cabrera is pretty good. 

 

After my first thoughts had been typed out on Total Runs, I must admit the metric was just one I liked and used a bit.  Since then I have expanded to Park Factors.  Park Factors are very, very, important.  A player that plays at Coors Field should be penalized because if you do poorly there you are likely a pretty bad hitter.  Meanwhile, a player that plays at Petco should be given some extra runs because some of his outs would be gone in most other parks.  Here are 2013’s park factors. 

Total Runs, 2013 Park Factors

 

Average Park: 100

Hitter’s Park: Above 100

Pitcher’s Park: Below 100

 

Chase Field: 99

Turner Field: 100

Camden Yards: 100

Fenway Park: 101

Wrigley Field: 109

U.S. Cellular Field: 97

Great American Ballpark: 97

Progressive Field: 98

Coors Field: 110

Comerica Park: 107

Minute Maid Park: 98

Kauffman Stadium: 103

Angel Stadium of Anaheim: 100

Dodger Stadium: 98

Marlins Park: 101

Miller Park: 107

Target Field: 102

Citi Field: 89

Yankee Stadium: 106

O.co Coliseum: 96

Citizens Bank Park: 97

PNC Park: 99

PETCO Park: 90

AT&T Park: 96

Safeco Field: 99

Busch Stadium: 96

Tropicana Field: 95

Rangers Ball Park in Arlington: 102

Rodgers Centre: 101

Nationals Park: 109

 

So for example let’s say Player A put’s up 67 Total Runs with Coors Field being his home park.  Since Coors is 10 above 100 (100 being average) you would subtract ten from his score of 67 to make it 57 Total Runs.  I feel the Park Factors adjustment is necessary for the metric to be fair and be as accurate as possible. 

 

Then about a month ago I realized that an adjustment needed to be made to compare players from historical seasons.  League run environment adjustments.  Some leagues such as 1968 or 2004 are so heavily skewed in one’s favor that they need to be adjusted for it to be fair and level.  So to fix the issue I created a chart, roughly to make a minor adjustment for this.  Here it is below

    I constructed a chart to push up or push down Total Run numbers based on league run environments.  Of course the higher the RPG numbers, the lower Total Runs score they receive because it was easier to hit in. 

Runs Per Game

4.00-4.15: +7 Total Runs

4.15-4.22: +3 Total Runs

4.23-4.30: +0 Total Runs

4.30-4.40: -4 Total Runs

4.40-4.50: -7 Total Runs

4.50-5.00: -12 Total Runs

NOTE: For leagues that are so heavily skewed I mean like 3.48 Runs per Game then I make bigger adjustments.  They are not shown on this chart.

 

Ok, now that is the final thing I have added to Total Runs.  The results of this are most fun of course, comparing players and such.  I wanted to introduce the stat first though so I didn’t just show you numbers and you having no idea what they mean or how I got them.  In the next post we will compare some players using Total Runs, such as Barry Bonds, Nap Lajoie, and more from a lot of eras.  I would also like to thank the owner of this website for giving me a chance to write articles on this pretty good looking blog.  I understand this can be a dull read but promise next few will be better.  Thanks for reading.  

Follow me on Twitter @CastroRizzo for a lot more baseball.