The Truth about Prospects

The Truth about Prospects

 

 

Prospects fail.  I could just write that and be done with this article but that’s the main idea.  There is a farm system that I have followed closely over the last few years and that’s the Chicago Cubs system.  I will try to give you examples of players from the system that meet the reasons of why prospects fail.  So here we go.

 

Injuries are a huge reason of why prospects fail.  Josh Vitters, in case you’re not familiar with him is the 3^rd overall pick of the 2007 draft by the Chicago Cubs.  Josh Vitters got injured and basically just went up the levels based on his prestige.  On the pitchers you see Tommy John surgery killing people’s development time lately. 

 

Tools.  You hear that word all the time when looking at prospects mostly position players.  Some players have elite speed, elite defense, but they can’t hit.  Just can’t do it.  Tools are like a box of candy that’s empty.  The box gives you promise but the inside is what ultimately determines your future.  Tools are worthless unless the player can hit a bit.

 

Strikeout rate or SO % for pitchers and hitters are why some fail.  Most pitchers that are good to elite pitchers get strikeouts.  Most hitters that are .300 hitters don’t strikeout 130+ times in a season.  You can, in my mind predict where a pitcher/hitter will land based on strikeouts.  Jacob Turner used to be a top prospect for the Detroit Tigers.  I for some reason really, really, liked him.  I thought he was destined to lead anchor the Tigers rotation for many years.  That of course didn’t happen for two reasons.

A)    He was one of the pieces traded in a deal that sent Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to the Tigers.  Turner went to the Marlins. 

B)      While in the minors his strikeout rate was never particularly good.  This lead to his eventual slow gradual decline into Miami.  Now he has a 6+ ERA in coming out of the Marlins bullpen at the moment.

 

 

On the hitter’s side of things for this we look at Brett Jackson, former Cubs top prospect.  Brett was a pretty decent defender and he could swing the bat pretty good too.  He had one glaring flaw however and that was he struck out.  A ton.  This prevented his Batting Average from really ever getting to high.  Eventually, he appeared in the majors in 2012 did dreadful got sent back down and is now toiling in Triple AAA likely on the verge of being out righted off the  40 man roster.  Strikeouts can help you or destroy you.

 

Aggressive promotions are also a way to make prospects fail.  Don’t really know of many examples however that had this happen.

 

Control problems are huge nowadays.  Some guys need to switch from being just throwers to pitchers.  Trevor May used to be a pretty good prospect in the Phillies organization.  I admit had a feeling about May that he would succeed.  Then he went to AA.  And that’s where his main flaw killed him.  Walks. Walks. Walks.  Even if you have huge strikeout numbers like Trevor May did, walks can kill you.  This is of course not his only flaw.  He was a fly ball pitcher that gave up a bit too many home runs. 

 

Oddly enough one flaw is that prospects don’t really care about it.  They just want money.  All they do in the winter is get fat and eat junk.  Jesus Montero quickly comes to mind as a great example.  Jesus is I believe is still in AAA and is currently just another guy.  He used to be the sixth best prospect in all of baseball, now he’s just a bad hitter.

 

Some pitchers are very highly rated (Trevor Bauer) but just can’t put it together.  One reason his is makeup, in which he thinks he doesn’t think he needs to make adjustments.  But he’s currently just a AAA/MLB guy with star potential looking good some nights and terrible some other ones.  He’s just in a circle, and there seems like no end to it.  Kevin Gausmen is another name that comes to mind in this category.  They have potential but the team has to keep them in the Majors to show what they got.  It’s a weird world to be in.

 

Players are not put in leagues/parks they can succeed in.  Mark Appel has like a crazy 10.80 ERA in High A Lancaster in a hitter friendly league and park.  It’s of course not all due to that but some of it is. Mark Appel’s upside is slowly declining because of it.  Or maybe Appel is just not a very good pitcher. 

 

Some “prospects” are just too old.  They no longer have upside because their age is slowly increasing and by the time they make it they will no longer have the upside they once had.  David Hale of the Braves is a good example born in 1987 and still in the 2014 Prospect Handbook. 

 

Thanks for reading.  Next time I will be taking a look at the Houston Astros rebuilding process and why it might not work.  Follow me on Twitter @CastroRizzo