Introduction to Total Runs for Pitchers

After a few hours of research I believe I have cracked some of the code for Total Runs for pitchers.  Now before I introduce the formula, remember this is a rough draft and in no way includes ERA, FIP, or any other advanced statistics, instead it sort of breaks down a pitcher's game. 

Formula:

Step 1:
Good
Batters Faced
IP
K's
Wins


Bad:
Hits Allowed
Runs Allowed
Walks Allowed
Losses

Step 2:
Add all the good results, and subtract all the bad



Step 3:Subtract the good and the bad from each other.



Step 4: Divide by 8



Step 5: Make Park Adjustments

In another post we'll talk about the results and other things.

Pitching Problems

I have recently thought how far are we in the field of baseball research or saber metrics?  Hitting I would say has progressed a lot, and so has fielding in the last decade or so but what about pitching?  The recent stats for pitching have been half fielding, regarding to DIPS and FIP.  Both of these attempt to take out the element of defense.  But what about the rest of the pitching field?

If you just answered W-L, then you are not reading you're type of blog.  The W-L is a terrible stat for the following reasons which I will repeat.

 1.  The pitcher must pitch well, allowing few runs.
2. The offense must score enough runs.
3. The defense must field all batted balls hit to them.
4. The bullpen must hold the lead.
5. The manager must leave the pitcher in five innings, and not remove him if the team is still behind.

Only one of these is in control of the pitcher, meaning simply W-L is just not a good stat at all. 

Now, after throwing out W-L, what would be you're next answer?

ERA?  ERA is a decent stat, but as we should know it does have it's flaws.  1) It shows the performance of the pitcher and his defense.  2) ERA can look shiny, but only with luck, defense, large strikeout numbers, and few walks.  ERA should not be a stat that you can rely on to tell you how good a pitcher really is. 

Pitcher's WAR?  Possibly, but as I believe I have said before why replacement level?  Why not just W, that is not compared to replacement or average or whatever else you could look at it. 

Those are the three I will talk about, I know there are many more but I think I've got my point across, when will somebody try to make a great pitching stat?  I want to, but how?

Total Wins

If you have not already read my post on Total Runs, I would go back and read that before you read this. 

Total Wins is based off Total Runs, which means Total Wins also is:
Park Adjusted
Positional Adjusted

In creating this stat, I have converted runs to wins which helps us in many ways.

Before I introduce to you the formula here is some data you will need for it.
Runs Per Game (NL or AL)
Total Runs Per Game (Total Runs divided by Games Played)

Now the formula...

Total Runs divided by Games Played=Total Runs Per Game  multiplied by Runs Per Game=Total Wins

Let's take Chris Davis's 2013 season for example. 

Total Runs:149
Games Played:160
AL Runs Per Game:4.33

149 divided by 160=0.93 Total Runs Per Game
0.93 multiplied by 4.33=
4.03 Total Wins

I hope you like this formula and take it for what it's worth, a reasonably good measure of what a player contributes to wins.

Total Runs Rumblings

Total Runs is a great underrated stat for showing the complete player, and I've already had post on the "introduction" to it, but now let's take it to the next level. 

Since I've last posted on Total Runs, I have made a change to the formula of it.  It now includes Park Factors which I think is a great addition.  The link for it is below. 


http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&teamid=0&season=2012 

Now, for it use the basic column and remember 100 is league average.  So anything below 100 is a pitcher's park, and anything above is a hitters park.  Let's take Starlin Castro for example.  Since his home park is Wrigley Field, which has 104 Basic Index subtract 4 from his Total Runs since he is playing in a hitters park which increases scoring by 4%. 

The new formula now is the following then:
Runs Created+
Defensive Runs Saved+
Base running Runs+
Positional Adjustment+
Park Factors=
Total Runs

I can safely call this the final formula.

Thanks for reading and I know it's quite a short post but hopefully I can get a few more posts up in the upcoming weeks.  Make sure to follow me on Twitter @CastroRizzo

Runs Created%

Recently while on Twitter, I came across somebody talking about a stat that he had basically made up called RBI%.  The main thought behind it was RBI is one of the most important stats because you want guys that can produce runs.  I thought about this for a bit, and then decided that RBI does work for it but why not make it better.  Use Runs Created instead! 

RC% does have problems I admit it but, I like it as it shows what percent of the runs scored by a team did one player create.  I will use Brandon Phillips, which most people think, "run producer". 

The Cincinnati Reds in 2013, scored 698 runs.  Brandon Phillips Runs Created total was 71.  71 Runs Created!  That's all, some of you might be thinking.  He had 103 RBI.  As you can tell he is not even close to the "run producer" many of you think he is.

Anyway, his RC%, using the formula Runs Created divided by Team's Runs Scored, so his RC% is...

10.1% RC%

Let's say we though used RBI% instead and what do we get?

14.7% RBI%

RBI says he is a great run producer but what does Runs Created% say?  He is not as good as people say.  Guess what?  We just made a new stat, and remember whether you're using Runs Created% or just regular Runs Created, never use RBI. 

 

Hisashi Iwakuma Best Pitcher in MLB?

According to Total Runs for 2013, Hisashi Iwakuma was the best pitcher in baseball.  Why would he even be close many of you are thinking I'm sure.  Let's check his basic stats.
14-6/2.66 ERA/185 K's/219 IP?

On the outside this appears to be pretty good season.  W-L could be better but as we should know by now we need to dismiss that useless stat.

His ERA was good for 3rd in the AL, so his ERA says he wasn't the best so what possibly could?

Another basic stat, Strikeouts he only had 185 of them in 219 IP, what is so good about that?

You might be thinking I'm crazy but know we take a deeper dive.

WAR for Pitchers lists him at 7.0 which is the best in the AL.  Some of you people might be reading this and thinking what?  Max Scherzer is the best pitcher in the MLB because he had 21 wins!  If you think this, well you might as well read another blog because this one isn't in your point of view at all.

His ERA+ was 138, a pretty good total but Clayton Kershaw's was 194 so with that we can say no Iwakuma is not the best pitcher in the MLB.  I could add Park Factors, or AL to NL Adjustments but I doubt they make much difference because Dodger Stadium is an extreme pitcher's park and Safeco is no hitter's park. 

To add onto this is FIP numbers say he got a bit lucky with his 3.44 FIP.  Fangraphs lists his WAR at 4.2, well below B-Ref. 

What about we take a check with Brooks Baseball on Iwakuma?

Trajectory and Movement - from 03/30/2013 to 10/12/2013

Pitch Type	Count	Freq	Velo (mph)			)
Fourseam	846	27.57%	90.56
Sinker	790	25.75%	89.79
Slider	554	18.06%	81.59
Curve	189	6.16%	72.84
Split	689	22.46%	86.04

Total Runs 2013 Update

Player	Runs Created	Pitching RunsCreated	Runs Saved	Baserunning Runs	Position	Total Runs
Trout, Mike	141	0	-9	4	24	160
Gomez, Carlos	91	0	38	1	25	155
McCutchen, Andrew	115	0	7	5	28	155
Carpenter, Matt	118	0	0	6	29	153
Goldschmidt, Paul	121	0	13	4	13	151
Cano, Robinson	112	0	6	-2	30	146
Simmons, Andrelton	67	0	41	2	34	144
Cabrera, Miguel	139	0	-18	1	21	143
Machado, Manny	84	0	35	0	24	143
Votto, Joey	124	0	6	0	13	143
Donaldson, Josh	107	0	11	-1	24	141
Davis, Chris	132	0	-7	2	12	139
Pedroia, Dustin	96	0	15	-3	31	139
Parra, Gerardo	74	0	41	3	20	138
Bruce, Jay	96	0	18	1	20	135
Iwakuma, Hisashi	0	128	5	0	2	135
Longoria, Evan	101	0	12	-4	22	131
Beltre, Adrian	111	0	-5	2	22	130
Kershaw, Clayton	4	120	4	0	2	130
Ellsbury, Jacoby	91	0	13	1	24	129

Total Runs, An Introduction

A baseball player is just a hitter, or a fielder, or even a base runner.  He's all of these things.  How can we measure this is an run form.

Run Form?

What I mean by run form is that it is in the form of runs and not Wins like WAR attempts to do.

Formula?

The formula for this stat is:
Runs Created+ Defensive Runs Saved+ Base running Runs+ Positional Adjustment

For the Positional Adjustment we use the following method.
Catcher:42 runs
First Base:13 runs
Second Base:32 runs
Shortstop:36 runs
Third Base:25 runs
Left Field:19 runs
Center Field:29 runs
Right Field:20 runs
DH:-7 runs

This is formula is not like where you can total up a team's total runs and get around the number of runs they scored that year. 

Now let's see some of the more interesting results, from 2012 stats,

Results

Based on 2012 stats, we see the following. 

Darwin Barney is an interesting case.  Barney's worth to his team in the form of Total Runs went like this.
Barney Runs Created:60
Barney DRS:28
Barney Base running runs:4.3
Barney Positional Adjustment:32 runs

Barney Total Runs: 124.3

This is actually quite a high total, mainly because of his defensive contributions.  You will be shocked to know what I figured next though.

Miguel Cabrera on 2012 stats is an interesting case also.

Cabrera RC:123
Cabrera DRS:-4
Cabrera BsR:-2.9
Cabrera Positional Adjustment:141.1 runs

The Total Runs separating them?  16.8 runs...

Barney is an extreme under rated based on this metric, or is it saying Cabrera is overrated?  No matter the reason, I think this stat is a very good one.

  

WAR, My Thoughts.

The stat WAR has taken off in the last five years and it is now a premier stat.  However, some people including me, think that it is not as good as it seems.  Here is my definition of WAR..

A statistic that tries to measure the wins a player could provide above the average replacement or bench player.  There are also a few little things to consider also...

-WAR is league-adjusted, park factors are included, and years adjusted meaning you can compare Walter Johnson and Rodger Clemens accurately. 

-It is possible to have a negative WAR, meaning that they have performed below the average bench player. 

-WAR takes into account the three main pieces of baseball.  Hitting, Fielding, and Base running. 

-They also have WAR for pitchers, but they do not resemble actual wins-losses at all. 


-There is no formula for WAR either which makes me sort of questionable.  If you have a stat, their needs to be at formula for it or else how do you know if it's just made up.

-Why is WAR confusing?  The so called "formula" changes everyday it seems like, making unreliable. 

-For hitters use Runs Created, for fielders use Defensive Runs, for pitchers use FIP, and for base runners use BrR or Base running Runs. 

-I'm not saying stop using WAR, but it is a ok stat not a great one like many people think it is... 

Relief Ace or Closer?

Around baseball for the last two decades or so there is this belief about bullpen management.  Most of baseball says you need an established closer, but there is a better way.  Welcome to the relief ace.  The best pitcher in the bullpen should be considered the relief ace.  Most managers would say at this point that the relief ace is the closer.  True, but wouldn’t you like your relief ace or former closer to be used at the highest leverage situation?  The highest leverage point could be in the 9^th or it could be in the 6^th.  It doesn’t really matter though just the highest point, the climax of the game. 

 

Why would you want to get rid of the closer?  I’m sure that’s what some of you might be asking.  One reason is that all saves are not created equal.  Some saves the closers have a 3 run lead when they enter for the save, while others might have a 1 run lead.  A 3 run lead or above is the game that you would rest your relief ace and not use him because most games like that there is no high leverage situation.  Or vice versa, you’re behind three or more runs, then usually don’t use your relief ace.  The relief ace might be on for one out or he could be in for 6 outs.  He could get up to 100 innings on this method so you need to make sure he could handle that workload.  Closers by managers are usually put in almost every save situation just for the purpose of getting this flawed stat.  It should not be about getting saves, but you should take to a relief ace so it doesn’t just turn into getting saves. 

 

In the end, I know I did not provide a lot of stats over this post, but I hope it still applied to you in some way the or the other.  The sentence I want you to take away from this article are…

The save is a flawed stat, and we do not need a set closer but instead a relief ace who pitches in the highest leverage situation.

 

  

Puig or Fernandez?

                                                           
The last few years a lot of rookies have burst onto the scene.  Last year it was Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.  This year it’s Jose Fernandez and Yasiel Puig at least in the National League.  These two rookies have both done tremendous in their short time in the Majors, but if you had to pick today, who would you pick for NL Rookie of the Year?

Let’s start with Puig first.  If you’re on the West Coast, you’re thinking Puig because well the media practically worships him over there.  He is having a tremendous rookie year.  Let’s look into some stats…

 

.371/.423/.599/ A few more walks would be nice but when you’re setting the world on fire well walks don’t matter.

The base running is what kinds of sets me down on Puig, he gets out on the base quite a lot.  BsR or Base running runs above average says Puig has cost his team -2.3 runs on the bases this year, which is not good.  He must think he is faster then he really his because it also shows in his SB and CS numbers.  7 stolen bases, 5 caught stealing.  But for fans him running his exciting to watch because you’re never know what will happen with the “speedy” Puig on the bases. 

 

His Fangraphs WAR is 3.1, while his Baseball-Reference WAR is 3.3 WAR. 

 

Another thing to note Puig only has 222 Plate Appearances since he made his Major League debut June 3^rd, while the Miami Marlins rookie has been on his squad since Opening Day. 

 

Now for the pitcher.  Rookie right-hander Jose Fernandez, pitcher for the Miami Marlins has pitched brilliantly this season.  His ERA is 2.54.  Last night pitching against a Wild Card Leader, the Cleveland Indians, he threw 8 innings while allowing no runs with 3 hits allowed and a career high of 14 strikeouts.  So he’s pretty good…

 

Fernandez had never pitched a game at Double AA or Triple AAA before pitching in the MLB.  He just turned 21 also.  Fernandez’s FIP stands at 2.80 which means that his fielders are stepping up behind him a bit.  Even a 2.80 FIP is still considered ace-level however.  He is 8-5 on a terrible Miami Marlins team.  His K/9 is 9.73 showing dominance.  Marlins Park this year is actually a hitters park this year so take this into account also.  His Fangraphs WAR is 2.9 while his Baseball-Reference WAR is 3.9 showing that they clearly disagree on his WAR for some reason. 

 

I think I am going to end there with all the stats.  Now we need to decide who should be the NL Rookie of the year?  Fernandez or Puig?  I am going to give a slight edge to Jose Fernandez just because of the stats that were shown and that Puig his hurting his team on the bases while it doesn’t appear to me that Fernandez is hurting team at all. 

 

Thanks for reading, please comment who you think should win. 

      

Some Friday Night "Bullets"

Just some bullets for your late Friday night…

 

Watching MLB Now today, I noticed Brian Kenny say something about Carlos Gomez as contender for NL MVP.  I was amazed by this comment.  I knew that Carlos Gomez was having a breakout season but MVP-worthy? 

 

.301/.347/.545/ is the slash line, and like the Carlos Gomez of old, he still is not able to take a walk often. 

Carlos also has 17 HR with 59 RBI, and 27 SB.

 

Now digging a bit deeper…

 

His WAR this year is 5.7, a great total for a full season, and the highest of his career.  His previous high was 3.1 WAR. 

His OPS this year is .892.  Once again he needs to take more walks. 

DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) is an advanced sabermetric calculated by the Fielding Bible.  He has saved 26 runs with his glove this year, which is amazing.  He is by far having his best year with the glove. 

 

An article on beyondtheboxscore.com called Defining the ‘ace’ label recently interested me.  One of its main points,    that you cannot say there is an ace on every team.  Just because they are the #1 starter doesn’t mean they have ace-level skills.  An ace should pitch 200 innings, with around 200 strikeouts with a 2.80-3.20 ERA.  If your below 2.80 then you’re doing even better then a “usual ace”. 

 Thanks for reading these “bullets”.  I might do these every once in a while so I can cover several topics in one post. 

#killthewin

A better way to evaluate pitchers needs to be established.  Well, I know that seems like a crappy statement but its true.  We all use either Wins and Losses or ERA, but it seems like but both have their flaws.  I had a conversation with a friend the other day about baseball sabermetrics.  When I brought up that I think Wins and Losses are useless, he quickly said no they aren’t.  He said, “Well it’s what gets a player to the hall of fame.”  I replied, “Do you think that is right?”  No response.  It seems like the Hall has misjudged players in this manner, by mostly picking them by their Win-Loss records. 

 

First, I introduce a nice stat but nowhere near what we need to replace the win.  Game Score, a Bill James stat is a nice tool.  It has no formula, and it is very simple to find.

 

1.  Start with 50 points.

2.  Add one point for each out recorded, so three points for every complete innings pitched.

3.  Add two points for each inning completed after the fourth.

4.  Add one point for each strikeout recorded.

5.  Subtract two points for each hit allowed.

6.  Subtract four points for each earned run allowed.

7.  Subtract two points for each unearned run allowed.

8.  Subtract one point for each walk.

 

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) one of my personal favorites is also a better stat then Wins and Losses.  If you want a better description of it here is a link. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

 

I hope to soon attempt to make a stat indicating whether a pitcher deserves a “win” or not. 

 

Also remember Brian Kenny’s motto #killthewin

Park Factors

Park factors are something that often is overlooked.  The reason being they are not calculated until after the season.  We need to know more about parks so let’s take a deeper look.

 

As many of you know, Petco Park is generally known as an extreme pitcher’s park, while in the thin air of Colorado, balls fly out of Coors Field.

MLB Park Factors - Through July 30, 2013
RK	PARK NAME	RUNS	HR	H	2B	3B	BB
1	Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois)	1.262	1.173	1.153	1.199	0.959	1.065
2	Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario)	1.195	1.439	1.063	1.451	0.595	1.121
3	Coors Field (Denver, Colorado)	1.155	1.138	1.081	1.000	1.730	1.011
4	Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan)	1.146	0.906	1.061	1.066	1.490	1.070
5	Target Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota)	1.108	0.894	1.050	1.170	0.663	0.861
6	Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)	1.094	1.289	1.044	0.890	1.608	1.074
	Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)	1.094	1.514	0.992	1.120	1.353	1.000
8	Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)	1.071	1.353	1.010	1.136	0.760	1.044
9	Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)	1.066	0.901	1.108	1.008	0.671	0.954
10	Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)	1.054	1.358	1.074	0.904	0.988	1.090
11	Marlins Park (Miami, Florida)	1.045	0.704	1.018	1.106	1.280	1.042
12	Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)	1.004	0.844	0.997	1.350	1.265	0.887
13	Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)	1.000	0.962	0.991	0.987	1.804	0.931
14	Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland)	0.996	1.189	0.921	0.806	0.926	1.070
15	Yankee Stadium (New York, New York)	0.994	1.062	1.018	0.892	0.619	1.064
16	Rangers Ballpark in Arlington (Arlington, Texas)	0.993	1.015	1.004	0.914	0.647	1.092
17	U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois)	0.978	1.070	0.895	0.755	0.378	1.061
18	Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida)	0.977	0.955	0.990	0.959	1.178	0.984
19	Turner Field (Atlanta, Georgia)	0.959	0.918	0.956	0.933	0.976	0.921
20	O.co Coliseum (Oakland, California)	0.957	0.839	0.985	1.136	1.520	1.118
21	Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington)	0.950	0.813	1.010	1.106	0.630	0.936
22	Angel Stadium of Anaheim (Anaheim, California)	0.945	0.803	1.018	0.974	1.010	0.931
23	Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona)	0.941	0.915	0.923	0.982	1.333	1.014
24	Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)	0.935	0.874	0.958	0.868	0.599	0.939
25	Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)	0.894	1.053	0.981	0.928	0.815	0.928
26	Citi Field (New York, New York)	0.884	1.106	0.935	0.925	0.831	1.023
27	PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)	0.862	0.542	0.986	0.975	0.800	0.881
28	Petco Park (San Diego, California)	0.851	0.950	0.902	0.723	0.964	1.027
29	AT&T Park (San Francisco, California)	0.848	0.729	0.978	0.964	3.506	1.159
30	Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California)	0.817	0.870	0.923	0.971	0.374	0.817

 

A score of 1.000 or above is in favor of the batter, below 1.000 it is in favor of the pitcher.

 

 

 

So this appears to say that Wrigley Field this season has been an extreme hitter’s park.  I, being a Cubs fan find this surprising.  The wind must be blowing out this year.  Another thing I noticed is the ranking of NL West outfields with exception of Coors, they all seem to be a pitcher’s park.  Their average rank (excluding Coors Field) is 27.5, rounding up to 28.  Dodger Stadium is the worst for hitters this season; this to me is also a surprise.  I expected Petco to be the worst.