Total Runs 6th Addition

Since we've last discussed Total Runs, I have created a sixth competent to it.  In case you can't remember when I first introduced Total Runs I had mostly just pulled it out of the Fielding Bible.  Since then I had added two new things to it, one being Park Factors and the newest addition I have refined over the past few weeks.  League Adjustments.  Here are some of my notes on the need for league adjustments. 

Total Runs currently includes the following stats

~ Runs Created

~ Defensive Runs Saved

~ Base running Runs

~ Park Factors

~ Positional Adjustment

 

But now with a higher level of knowledge with statistics since I first began doing Total Runs research, I want to add a final sixth component to the formula.  A year-year adjustment based on average offense levels in both leagues.  As you probably know, pitchers lately have been getting more and more dominant and it is becoming harder to get on base.  A small adjustment for harder hitting conditions around the league in 2009-2014 would be helpful.  It would have to be small however because the DRS and BSR numbers are not affected by the quality of pitching around the league, just RC is affected by it. 

Notes:

Confirmed that hitting in 2014 is harder than in 2013.

In 2009, teams scored 4.61 runs per game and hit .262, 2014: 4.14 RPG, and a .251 BA.  That might seem like that big of a difference but it is pretty big.

When doing Total Runs this adjustment is going to be decreasing hitters Total Runs a bit in 2009, and increasing hitters Total Runs in 2014 because of varying hitting conditions.

 

 

 

All those above writings were done about a week ago.  Since that time I figured that easiest and possibly the best way to do this would be to make a chart and go by the chart.   

I figured that we would use Runs Per Game to examine run scoring environments. 

So below is the work I did with that.

I’ve figured out how to do my 6^th addition to Total Runs.  It is going to be a chart of Runs Per Game for each leagues, NL and AL.  Then I have a chart in which we can run the data through below.

 

2014	AL RPG: 4.27	NL RPG: 4.01
2013	AL RPG: 4.33	NL RPG: 4.00
2012	AL RPG: 4.45	NL RPG: 4.22
2011	AL RPG: 4.46	NL RPG: 4.13
2010	AL RPG: 4.45	NL RPG: 4.33
2009	AL RPG: 4.82	NL RPG: 4.43

 

Next, with the data we have above, I constructed a chart to push up or push down Total Run numbers based on league run environments.  Of course the higher the RPG numbers, the lower Total Runs score they receive because it was easier to hit in. 

Runs Per Game

4.00-4.15: +7 Total Runs

4.15-4.22: +3 Total Runs

4.23-4.30: +0 Total Runs

4.30-4.40: -4 Total Runs

4.40-4.50: -7 Total Runs

4.50-5.00: -12 Total Runs

 

So, there is my sixth addition.  I think it is necessary and should be done to help make the metric even more useful.

 

Thanks for reading!