Estimated Runs Created

A new way to do Runs Created without going through the extremely long formula is a thing I recently tinkered with a bit.  Here is the simple formula.

Hits+Walks+Hit By Pitch

SB times 0.24=

CS times 0.76=

Subtract the SB times by the CS times results, then it will look like this.

Hits+Walks+Hit By Pitch+Base running runs= A number, then divide by 2.5 to get their estimated Runs Created.

 

 

 

Example:

Using Ray Durham’s 2000 season

172+75+7=254

25 SB times 0.24= 6 runs

13 CS times= 10 runs

254-4=250

250 divided by 2.5=100 Estimated Runs Created compared to 102 real Runs Created

 

I’ve tested it on several more players and it usually comes within 10 of their real Runs Created count.  Now I can calculate Total Runs for everybody the history of baseball.  Until I refine Fielding Linear Weights, I will be using the also flawed Fielding Runs from the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia.  Base running runs will also be in the metric, but it will be combined into Runs Created.  Park Factors and League Adjustments will still be in Total Runs because I will be able to do them for all eras.

Total Runs 2014 Leaders Update

In my last post I briefly discussed how I've changed Total Runs with Park Factor Adjustments, and League Run Environment Adjustments, so remember this stat is not my stat and they do not include the additions I have added.  Thanks!

Player	Runs Created	Pitching RunsCreated	Runs Saved	Baserunning Runs	Position	Total Runs
Stanton, Giancarlo	70	0	10	4	10	94
Tulowitzki, Troy	70	0	6	-1	16	91
Lucroy, Jonathan	58	0	7	0	19	84
Trout, Mike	69	0	0	2	13	84
Kinsler, Ian	52	0	10	2	15	79
Donaldson, Josh	48	0	18	0	11	77
Goldschmidt, Paul	61	0	2	4	7	74
Gordon, Alex	46	0	17	2	9	74
Heyward, Jason	42	0	23	-1	10	74
Tanaka, Masahiro	0	70	2	0	1	73
Gomez, Carlos	57	0	2	0	13	72
McCutchen, Andrew	67	0	-6	-3	14	72
Rendon, Anthony	51	0	4	5	12	72
Frazier, Todd	52	0	5	1	12	70
Jones, Adam	51	0	-1	4	14	68
Utley, Chase	49	0	2	2	15	68
Altuve, Jose	57	0	-4	-1	15	67
Bautista, Jose	60	0	0	-2	9	67
Dozier, Brian	49	0	-1	4	15	67
Encarnacion, Edwin	63	0	-2	1	5	67
Pence, Hunter	53	0	0	4	10	67

Total Runs 6th Addition

Since we've last discussed Total Runs, I have created a sixth competent to it.  In case you can't remember when I first introduced Total Runs I had mostly just pulled it out of the Fielding Bible.  Since then I had added two new things to it, one being Park Factors and the newest addition I have refined over the past few weeks.  League Adjustments.  Here are some of my notes on the need for league adjustments. 

Total Runs currently includes the following stats

~ Runs Created

~ Defensive Runs Saved

~ Base running Runs

~ Park Factors

~ Positional Adjustment

 

But now with a higher level of knowledge with statistics since I first began doing Total Runs research, I want to add a final sixth component to the formula.  A year-year adjustment based on average offense levels in both leagues.  As you probably know, pitchers lately have been getting more and more dominant and it is becoming harder to get on base.  A small adjustment for harder hitting conditions around the league in 2009-2014 would be helpful.  It would have to be small however because the DRS and BSR numbers are not affected by the quality of pitching around the league, just RC is affected by it. 

Notes:

Confirmed that hitting in 2014 is harder than in 2013.

In 2009, teams scored 4.61 runs per game and hit .262, 2014: 4.14 RPG, and a .251 BA.  That might seem like that big of a difference but it is pretty big.

When doing Total Runs this adjustment is going to be decreasing hitters Total Runs a bit in 2009, and increasing hitters Total Runs in 2014 because of varying hitting conditions.

 

 

 

All those above writings were done about a week ago.  Since that time I figured that easiest and possibly the best way to do this would be to make a chart and go by the chart.   

I figured that we would use Runs Per Game to examine run scoring environments. 

So below is the work I did with that.

I’ve figured out how to do my 6^th addition to Total Runs.  It is going to be a chart of Runs Per Game for each leagues, NL and AL.  Then I have a chart in which we can run the data through below.

 

2014	AL RPG: 4.27	NL RPG: 4.01
2013	AL RPG: 4.33	NL RPG: 4.00
2012	AL RPG: 4.45	NL RPG: 4.22
2011	AL RPG: 4.46	NL RPG: 4.13
2010	AL RPG: 4.45	NL RPG: 4.33
2009	AL RPG: 4.82	NL RPG: 4.43

 

Next, with the data we have above, I constructed a chart to push up or push down Total Run numbers based on league run environments.  Of course the higher the RPG numbers, the lower Total Runs score they receive because it was easier to hit in. 

Runs Per Game

4.00-4.15: +7 Total Runs

4.15-4.22: +3 Total Runs

4.23-4.30: +0 Total Runs

4.30-4.40: -4 Total Runs

4.40-4.50: -7 Total Runs

4.50-5.00: -12 Total Runs

 

So, there is my sixth addition.  I think it is necessary and should be done to help make the metric even more useful.

 

Thanks for reading!

 

 

Getting back on track

So, it's been a while.  When I left off on writing this blog, I was discussing my new metric (Fielding Linear Weights) but now we're going to change courses and starting talking about actual things from this 2014 season.  A lot of things have happened since the season started, breakouts, busts, and teams over performing and under performing.  We're going to return to Fielding Linear Weights sometime during the offseason hopefully.  I know we were making progress on it but I'll hold it off.  So I hope to add some blog posts soon.  Thanks and remember to follow me on Twitter @CastroRizzo