2014 Cubs Projections (Part One)

Before you read this post, I would read my post on Total Runs on the blog right here http://mlbrumblings.blogspot.com/2013/10/total-runs-rumblings.html

 Cubs 2013-2014 Total Runs

 

Luis Valbuena: 64 Total Runs

Junior Lake: 62 Total Runs

Nate Schierholtz: 76 Total Runs

Welington Castillo: 95 Total Runs

 Starlin Castro: 74 Total Runs

Ryan Sweeney: 74 Total Runs

Anthony Rizzo: 91 Total Runs

Darwin Barney: 67 Total Runs

These calculations are estimates and are not very good at all projections for 2014 because they do not include age curves although they do have estimates for players who have few plate appearances in 2013 but are expected to have a larger role in 2014.  Without aging curves and player’s performance change which mostly makes the following prediction nonsense I estimate the Cubs will score 713 runs  in 2014. 

The calculation also includes five bench players who I randomly estimated would provide twenty total runs each.  And then we have ten for call-ups/pitchers.  I hope you agree with these estimates, and hopefully I will do pitcher’s soon so we can estimate the Cubs W-L record.

 It could be more or less than 713 because we can expect Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo to do better and other players might do better or worse too. 

This is just a rough estimate, and I will improve this estimate in Part Two.