Introduction to Total Runs for Pitchers

After a few hours of research I believe I have cracked some of the code for Total Runs for pitchers.  Now before I introduce the formula, remember this is a rough draft and in no way includes ERA, FIP, or any other advanced statistics, instead it sort of breaks down a pitcher's game. 

Formula:

Step 1:
Good
Batters Faced
IP
K's
Wins


Bad:
Hits Allowed
Runs Allowed
Walks Allowed
Losses

Step 2:
Add all the good results, and subtract all the bad



Step 3:Subtract the good and the bad from each other.



Step 4: Divide by 8



Step 5: Make Park Adjustments

In another post we'll talk about the results and other things.

Pitching Problems

I have recently thought how far are we in the field of baseball research or saber metrics?  Hitting I would say has progressed a lot, and so has fielding in the last decade or so but what about pitching?  The recent stats for pitching have been half fielding, regarding to DIPS and FIP.  Both of these attempt to take out the element of defense.  But what about the rest of the pitching field?

If you just answered W-L, then you are not reading you're type of blog.  The W-L is a terrible stat for the following reasons which I will repeat.

 1.  The pitcher must pitch well, allowing few runs.
2. The offense must score enough runs.
3. The defense must field all batted balls hit to them.
4. The bullpen must hold the lead.
5. The manager must leave the pitcher in five innings, and not remove him if the team is still behind.

Only one of these is in control of the pitcher, meaning simply W-L is just not a good stat at all. 

Now, after throwing out W-L, what would be you're next answer?

ERA?  ERA is a decent stat, but as we should know it does have it's flaws.  1) It shows the performance of the pitcher and his defense.  2) ERA can look shiny, but only with luck, defense, large strikeout numbers, and few walks.  ERA should not be a stat that you can rely on to tell you how good a pitcher really is. 

Pitcher's WAR?  Possibly, but as I believe I have said before why replacement level?  Why not just W, that is not compared to replacement or average or whatever else you could look at it. 

Those are the three I will talk about, I know there are many more but I think I've got my point across, when will somebody try to make a great pitching stat?  I want to, but how?

Total Wins

If you have not already read my post on Total Runs, I would go back and read that before you read this. 

Total Wins is based off Total Runs, which means Total Wins also is:
Park Adjusted
Positional Adjusted

In creating this stat, I have converted runs to wins which helps us in many ways.

Before I introduce to you the formula here is some data you will need for it.
Runs Per Game (NL or AL)
Total Runs Per Game (Total Runs divided by Games Played)

Now the formula...

Total Runs divided by Games Played=Total Runs Per Game  multiplied by Runs Per Game=Total Wins

Let's take Chris Davis's 2013 season for example. 

Total Runs:149
Games Played:160
AL Runs Per Game:4.33

149 divided by 160=0.93 Total Runs Per Game
0.93 multiplied by 4.33=
4.03 Total Wins

I hope you like this formula and take it for what it's worth, a reasonably good measure of what a player contributes to wins.