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Saturday, November 22, 2014

2014 Park Factors

Above 100: Hitters Park
Below 100: Pitchers Park
Exactly 100: Neutral

The reason for me posting these is because:

A) You might be interested in it.

B) These are the Park Factors I use for Total Runs.

In this article you can see how Park Factors are actually put into Total Runs (I have a new way of doing it)
http://regresstothemean.blogspot.com/2014/11/changes-to-total-runs.html?m=1


I'll be using just the team name, so Cubs of course means Wrigley Field.

D'Backs: 103
Braves: 98
Orioles: 99
Red Sox: 107
Cubs: 97
White Sox: 99
Reds: 97
Indians: 98
Rockies: 123
Tigers: 102
Astros: 100
Royals: 102
Angels: 97
Dodgers: 92
Marlins: 100
Brewers: 99
Twins: 105
Mets: 94
Yankees: 101
A's: 104
Phillies: 95
Pirates: 103
Padres: 92
Giants: 98
Mariners: 93
Cardinals: 100
Rays: 98
Rangers: 97
Blue Jays: 101
Nationals: 106

Friday, November 21, 2014

Changes to Total Runs

Some changes to my metric Total Runs have been implented.  The metric's formula is still
Runs Created+
Defensive Runs Saved+
Speed Runs+
League Adjustment+
Positional Adjustment+
Park Factors=
Total Runs

As you may have noticed my metric (Speed Runs) is also included.  I believe I made a blog post on it a while back.

The League Adjustments for 2014 have been determined and they are +5 for NL batters, +3 for AL batters.  That's all League Adjustments all for 2014.  (It's different for other years)

The way the Positional Adjustments and Park Factors were calculated has been changed.  The basis on the change is the same for both metrics.  I'll cover the Postional Adjustments first.

As you may know Positional Adjustments used to be given to all players, on a fixed amount based on the position they played.  Here is the chart.

Catcher: + 42 runs
Shortstop: + 36 runs
Second Base: +32 runs
Center Fielder: +29 runs
Third Base: + 25 runs
Right Fielder: + 20 runs
Left Fielder: + 19 runs
First Base: + 13 runs
DH: - 7 runs

I used to give the full credit depending based on this chart which is based off the assumption that they played 162 games.  The change is now, you only get credit for the games you played.  The way to determine the Positonal Adjustment Value is now the following:

Games Played/162 * Postional Adjustment Value based on Position.

This only gives them credit for the games they played rather then giving them a credit for 162 games.  My old approach was just lazy but now it's been fixed.

Now to the revamped Park Factors Value.  Like the Positional Adjustment, I used to give credit to the players for playing 162 games now that's been adjusted.

Above 100 Hitters park
Below 100 pitchers park
100=Neutral

Games Played/162 * + or - the player's park above or below 100.

That's the new way we do Park Factors and Postional Adjustments.  Only giving then credit for the games they actually played.  The Positional Adjustment will have a larger impact on the player's Total Runs over Park Factors most of the time.

Total Runs is hopefully done with new parts.  And by parts I mean the 6 "values" that go into it.  The way we figure these values will continue to be changed.  I've already had some new ideas to fix Speed Runs a bit.

Just an update on the Database for 2014 stats.  I'm currently on the last names starting with P so making steady progress.