2014 Cubs Projections (Part One)

Before you read this post, I would read my post on Total Runs on the blog right here http://mlbrumblings.blogspot.com/2013/10/total-runs-rumblings.html

 Cubs 2013-2014 Total Runs

 

Luis Valbuena: 64 Total Runs

Junior Lake: 62 Total Runs

Nate Schierholtz: 76 Total Runs

Welington Castillo: 95 Total Runs

 Starlin Castro: 74 Total Runs

Ryan Sweeney: 74 Total Runs

Anthony Rizzo: 91 Total Runs

Darwin Barney: 67 Total Runs

These calculations are estimates and are not very good at all projections for 2014 because they do not include age curves although they do have estimates for players who have few plate appearances in 2013 but are expected to have a larger role in 2014.  Without aging curves and player’s performance change which mostly makes the following prediction nonsense I estimate the Cubs will score 713 runs  in 2014. 

The calculation also includes five bench players who I randomly estimated would provide twenty total runs each.  And then we have ten for call-ups/pitchers.  I hope you agree with these estimates, and hopefully I will do pitcher’s soon so we can estimate the Cubs W-L record.

 It could be more or less than 713 because we can expect Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo to do better and other players might do better or worse too. 

This is just a rough estimate, and I will improve this estimate in Part Two. 

Adam Dunn and Value

Sometimes we overlook baseball players because they lack a skill that most baseball players have.  One type of player that interests me is the three outcome player.  The 3 outcome player is one who has power, however is terrible at making contact yet he can take walks. 
-HR
-BB
-SO

Adam Dunn as we know is one of these players.  Grasping his value is what many people can not see.  For fans who use batting average as the chief measure of a hitter's skill then this is an invaluable player.  He strikeouts out a lot too which is a real killer to a team's offense.  The inability to make contact is a skill that some players can actually survive without however.  Adam Dunn is one of these players.

The value in Dunn can not be seen in just himself, we need to find comparable players.  Off the top of my head I can name two current ones.  Carlos Pena and Mark Reynolds.  Let's check see these three players basic career statistics. 

Adam Dunn: .238/.366/.495/ HR:440  BB:1246  SO:2220
Carlos Pena: .233/.348/.465/ HR:285  BB:813  SO:1566
Mark Reynolds: .233/.329/.464/ HR:202  BB:459  SO:1276

*Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn careers started in 2001, Mark Reynolds in 2006.

Adam Dunn is a valuable player even though so called traditional stats do not show it.  As we can see by wRC+.  I think this actually might be the first time I have mentioned this stat on this blog so here's my description of it.

wRC+- This is a stat based off Bill James's revolutionary Runs Created.  It is based on that 100 is about league average and anything below is of course below league average and anything above 100 is better then league average.  It is also park and league adjusted.  A 125 wRC+ can be read as he produced 25% more runs then the average player. 

Career wRC+
Dunn: 123
Pena: 118
Reynolds: 108

Dunn is clearly the best of this type of players and as we found out today, players like Dunn surprisingly do have value to teams on offense.  Thanks for reading and remember you can follow me on Twitter @CastroRizzo