Total Runs is a great underrated stat for showing the complete player, and I've already had post on the "introduction" to it, but now let's take it to the next level.
Since I've last posted on Total Runs, I have made a change to the formula of it. It now includes Park Factors which I think is a great addition. The link for it is below.
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&teamid=0&season=2012
Now, for it use the basic column and remember 100 is league average. So anything below 100 is a pitcher's park, and anything above is a hitters park. Let's take Starlin Castro for example. Since his home park is Wrigley Field, which has 104 Basic Index subtract 4 from his Total Runs since he is playing in a hitters park which increases scoring by 4%.
The new formula now is the following then:
Runs Created+
Defensive Runs Saved+
Base running Runs+
Positional Adjustment+
Park Factors=
Total Runs
I can safely call this the final formula.
Thanks for reading and I know it's quite a short post but hopefully I can get a few more posts up in the upcoming weeks. Make sure to follow me on Twitter @CastroRizzo
Saturday, October 19, 2013
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Runs Created%
Recently while on Twitter, I came across somebody talking about a stat that he had basically made up called RBI%. The main thought behind it was RBI is one of the most important stats because you want guys that can produce runs. I thought about this for a bit, and then decided that RBI does work for it but why not make it better. Use Runs Created instead!
RC% does have problems I admit it but, I like it as it shows what percent of the runs scored by a team did one player create. I will use Brandon Phillips, which most people think, "run producer".
The Cincinnati Reds in 2013, scored 698 runs. Brandon Phillips Runs Created total was 71. 71 Runs Created! That's all, some of you might be thinking. He had 103 RBI. As you can tell he is not even close to the "run producer" many of you think he is.
Anyway, his RC%, using the formula Runs Created divided by Team's Runs Scored, so his RC% is...
10.1% RC%
Let's say we though used RBI% instead and what do we get?
14.7% RBI%
RBI says he is a great run producer but what does Runs Created% say? He is not as good as people say. Guess what? We just made a new stat, and remember whether you're using Runs Created% or just regular Runs Created, never use RBI.
RC% does have problems I admit it but, I like it as it shows what percent of the runs scored by a team did one player create. I will use Brandon Phillips, which most people think, "run producer".
The Cincinnati Reds in 2013, scored 698 runs. Brandon Phillips Runs Created total was 71. 71 Runs Created! That's all, some of you might be thinking. He had 103 RBI. As you can tell he is not even close to the "run producer" many of you think he is.
Anyway, his RC%, using the formula Runs Created divided by Team's Runs Scored, so his RC% is...
10.1% RC%
Let's say we though used RBI% instead and what do we get?
14.7% RBI%
RBI says he is a great run producer but what does Runs Created% say? He is not as good as people say. Guess what? We just made a new stat, and remember whether you're using Runs Created% or just regular Runs Created, never use RBI.
Saturday, October 12, 2013
Hisashi Iwakuma Best Pitcher in MLB?
According to Total Runs for 2013, Hisashi Iwakuma was the best pitcher in baseball. Why would he even be close many of you are thinking I'm sure. Let's check his basic stats.
14-6/2.66 ERA/185 K's/219 IP?
On the outside this appears to be pretty good season. W-L could be better but as we should know by now we need to dismiss that useless stat.
His ERA was good for 3rd in the AL, so his ERA says he wasn't the best so what possibly could?
Another basic stat, Strikeouts he only had 185 of them in 219 IP, what is so good about that?
You might be thinking I'm crazy but know we take a deeper dive.
WAR for Pitchers lists him at 7.0 which is the best in the AL. Some of you people might be reading this and thinking what? Max Scherzer is the best pitcher in the MLB because he had 21 wins! If you think this, well you might as well read another blog because this one isn't in your point of view at all.
His ERA+ was 138, a pretty good total but Clayton Kershaw's was 194 so with that we can say no Iwakuma is not the best pitcher in the MLB. I could add Park Factors, or AL to NL Adjustments but I doubt they make much difference because Dodger Stadium is an extreme pitcher's park and Safeco is no hitter's park.
To add onto this is FIP numbers say he got a bit lucky with his 3.44 FIP. Fangraphs lists his WAR at 4.2, well below B-Ref.
What about we take a check with Brooks Baseball on Iwakuma?
Trajectory and Movement - from 03/30/2013 to 10/12/2013
14-6/2.66 ERA/185 K's/219 IP?
On the outside this appears to be pretty good season. W-L could be better but as we should know by now we need to dismiss that useless stat.
His ERA was good for 3rd in the AL, so his ERA says he wasn't the best so what possibly could?
Another basic stat, Strikeouts he only had 185 of them in 219 IP, what is so good about that?
You might be thinking I'm crazy but know we take a deeper dive.
WAR for Pitchers lists him at 7.0 which is the best in the AL. Some of you people might be reading this and thinking what? Max Scherzer is the best pitcher in the MLB because he had 21 wins! If you think this, well you might as well read another blog because this one isn't in your point of view at all.
His ERA+ was 138, a pretty good total but Clayton Kershaw's was 194 so with that we can say no Iwakuma is not the best pitcher in the MLB. I could add Park Factors, or AL to NL Adjustments but I doubt they make much difference because Dodger Stadium is an extreme pitcher's park and Safeco is no hitter's park.
To add onto this is FIP numbers say he got a bit lucky with his 3.44 FIP. Fangraphs lists his WAR at 4.2, well below B-Ref.
What about we take a check with Brooks Baseball on Iwakuma?
Trajectory and Movement - from 03/30/2013 to 10/12/2013
| Pitch Type | Count | Freq | Velo (mph) | ) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourseam | 846 | 27.57% | 90.56 | ||||
| Sinker | 790 | 25.75% | 89.79 | ||||
| Slider | 554 | 18.06% | 81.59 | ||||
| Curve | 189 | 6.16% | 72.84 | ||||
| Split | 689 | 22.46% | 86.04 |
Total Runs 2013 Update
| Player | Runs Created | Pitching RunsCreated | Runs Saved | Baserunning Runs | Position | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trout, Mike | 141 | 0 | -9 | 4 | 24 | 160 |
| Gomez, Carlos | 91 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 25 | 155 |
| McCutchen, Andrew | 115 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 155 |
| Carpenter, Matt | 118 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 153 |
| Goldschmidt, Paul | 121 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 151 |
| Cano, Robinson | 112 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 30 | 146 |
| Simmons, Andrelton | 67 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 34 | 144 |
| Cabrera, Miguel | 139 | 0 | -18 | 1 | 21 | 143 |
| Machado, Manny | 84 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 24 | 143 |
| Votto, Joey | 124 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 143 |
| Donaldson, Josh | 107 | 0 | 11 | -1 | 24 | 141 |
| Davis, Chris | 132 | 0 | -7 | 2 | 12 | 139 |
| Pedroia, Dustin | 96 | 0 | 15 | -3 | 31 | 139 |
| Parra, Gerardo | 74 | 0 | 41 | 3 | 20 | 138 |
| Bruce, Jay | 96 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 20 | 135 |
| Iwakuma, Hisashi | 0 | 128 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 135 |
| Longoria, Evan | 101 | 0 | 12 | -4 | 22 | 131 |
| Beltre, Adrian | 111 | 0 | -5 | 2 | 22 | 130 |
| Kershaw, Clayton | 4 | 120 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 130 |
| Ellsbury, Jacoby | 91 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 24 | 129 |
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
Total Runs, An Introduction
A baseball player is just a hitter, or a fielder, or even a base runner. He's all of these things. How can we measure this is an run form.
Runs Created+ Defensive Runs Saved+ Base running Runs+ Positional Adjustment
For the Positional Adjustment we use the following method.
Catcher:42 runs
First Base:13 runs
Second Base:32 runs
Shortstop:36 runs
Third Base:25 runs
Left Field:19 runs
Center Field:29 runs
Right Field:20 runs
DH:-7 runs
This is formula is not like where you can total up a team's total runs and get around the number of runs they scored that year.
Now let's see some of the more interesting results, from 2012 stats,
Darwin Barney is an interesting case. Barney's worth to his team in the form of Total Runs went like this.
Barney Runs Created:60
Barney DRS:28
Barney Base running runs:4.3
Barney Positional Adjustment:32 runs
Barney Total Runs: 124.3
This is actually quite a high total, mainly because of his defensive contributions. You will be shocked to know what I figured next though.
Miguel Cabrera on 2012 stats is an interesting case also.
Cabrera RC:123
Cabrera DRS:-4
Cabrera BsR:-2.9
Cabrera Positional Adjustment:141.1 runs
The Total Runs separating them? 16.8 runs...
Barney is an extreme under rated based on this metric, or is it saying Cabrera is overrated? No matter the reason, I think this stat is a very good one.
Run Form?
What I mean by run form is that it is in the form of runs and not Wins like WAR attempts to do.Formula?
The formula for this stat is:Runs Created+ Defensive Runs Saved+ Base running Runs+ Positional Adjustment
For the Positional Adjustment we use the following method.
Catcher:42 runs
First Base:13 runs
Second Base:32 runs
Shortstop:36 runs
Third Base:25 runs
Left Field:19 runs
Center Field:29 runs
Right Field:20 runs
DH:-7 runs
This is formula is not like where you can total up a team's total runs and get around the number of runs they scored that year.
Now let's see some of the more interesting results, from 2012 stats,
Results
Based on 2012 stats, we see the following.Darwin Barney is an interesting case. Barney's worth to his team in the form of Total Runs went like this.
Barney Runs Created:60
Barney DRS:28
Barney Base running runs:4.3
Barney Positional Adjustment:32 runs
Barney Total Runs: 124.3
This is actually quite a high total, mainly because of his defensive contributions. You will be shocked to know what I figured next though.
Miguel Cabrera on 2012 stats is an interesting case also.
Cabrera RC:123
Cabrera DRS:-4
Cabrera BsR:-2.9
Cabrera Positional Adjustment:141.1 runs
The Total Runs separating them? 16.8 runs...
Barney is an extreme under rated based on this metric, or is it saying Cabrera is overrated? No matter the reason, I think this stat is a very good one.
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