Relief Ace or Closer?

Around baseball for the last two decades or so there is this belief about bullpen management.  Most of baseball says you need an established closer, but there is a better way.  Welcome to the relief ace.  The best pitcher in the bullpen should be considered the relief ace.  Most managers would say at this point that the relief ace is the closer.  True, but wouldn’t you like your relief ace or former closer to be used at the highest leverage situation?  The highest leverage point could be in the 9^th or it could be in the 6^th.  It doesn’t really matter though just the highest point, the climax of the game. 

 

Why would you want to get rid of the closer?  I’m sure that’s what some of you might be asking.  One reason is that all saves are not created equal.  Some saves the closers have a 3 run lead when they enter for the save, while others might have a 1 run lead.  A 3 run lead or above is the game that you would rest your relief ace and not use him because most games like that there is no high leverage situation.  Or vice versa, you’re behind three or more runs, then usually don’t use your relief ace.  The relief ace might be on for one out or he could be in for 6 outs.  He could get up to 100 innings on this method so you need to make sure he could handle that workload.  Closers by managers are usually put in almost every save situation just for the purpose of getting this flawed stat.  It should not be about getting saves, but you should take to a relief ace so it doesn’t just turn into getting saves. 

 

In the end, I know I did not provide a lot of stats over this post, but I hope it still applied to you in some way the or the other.  The sentence I want you to take away from this article are…

The save is a flawed stat, and we do not need a set closer but instead a relief ace who pitches in the highest leverage situation.

 

  

Puig or Fernandez?

                                                           
The last few years a lot of rookies have burst onto the scene.  Last year it was Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.  This year it’s Jose Fernandez and Yasiel Puig at least in the National League.  These two rookies have both done tremendous in their short time in the Majors, but if you had to pick today, who would you pick for NL Rookie of the Year?

Let’s start with Puig first.  If you’re on the West Coast, you’re thinking Puig because well the media practically worships him over there.  He is having a tremendous rookie year.  Let’s look into some stats…

 

.371/.423/.599/ A few more walks would be nice but when you’re setting the world on fire well walks don’t matter.

The base running is what kinds of sets me down on Puig, he gets out on the base quite a lot.  BsR or Base running runs above average says Puig has cost his team -2.3 runs on the bases this year, which is not good.  He must think he is faster then he really his because it also shows in his SB and CS numbers.  7 stolen bases, 5 caught stealing.  But for fans him running his exciting to watch because you’re never know what will happen with the “speedy” Puig on the bases. 

 

His Fangraphs WAR is 3.1, while his Baseball-Reference WAR is 3.3 WAR. 

 

Another thing to note Puig only has 222 Plate Appearances since he made his Major League debut June 3^rd, while the Miami Marlins rookie has been on his squad since Opening Day. 

 

Now for the pitcher.  Rookie right-hander Jose Fernandez, pitcher for the Miami Marlins has pitched brilliantly this season.  His ERA is 2.54.  Last night pitching against a Wild Card Leader, the Cleveland Indians, he threw 8 innings while allowing no runs with 3 hits allowed and a career high of 14 strikeouts.  So he’s pretty good…

 

Fernandez had never pitched a game at Double AA or Triple AAA before pitching in the MLB.  He just turned 21 also.  Fernandez’s FIP stands at 2.80 which means that his fielders are stepping up behind him a bit.  Even a 2.80 FIP is still considered ace-level however.  He is 8-5 on a terrible Miami Marlins team.  His K/9 is 9.73 showing dominance.  Marlins Park this year is actually a hitters park this year so take this into account also.  His Fangraphs WAR is 2.9 while his Baseball-Reference WAR is 3.9 showing that they clearly disagree on his WAR for some reason. 

 

I think I am going to end there with all the stats.  Now we need to decide who should be the NL Rookie of the year?  Fernandez or Puig?  I am going to give a slight edge to Jose Fernandez just because of the stats that were shown and that Puig his hurting his team on the bases while it doesn’t appear to me that Fernandez is hurting team at all. 

 

Thanks for reading, please comment who you think should win. 

      

Some Friday Night "Bullets"

Just some bullets for your late Friday night…

 

Watching MLB Now today, I noticed Brian Kenny say something about Carlos Gomez as contender for NL MVP.  I was amazed by this comment.  I knew that Carlos Gomez was having a breakout season but MVP-worthy? 

 

.301/.347/.545/ is the slash line, and like the Carlos Gomez of old, he still is not able to take a walk often. 

Carlos also has 17 HR with 59 RBI, and 27 SB.

 

Now digging a bit deeper…

 

His WAR this year is 5.7, a great total for a full season, and the highest of his career.  His previous high was 3.1 WAR. 

His OPS this year is .892.  Once again he needs to take more walks. 

DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) is an advanced sabermetric calculated by the Fielding Bible.  He has saved 26 runs with his glove this year, which is amazing.  He is by far having his best year with the glove. 

 

An article on beyondtheboxscore.com called Defining the ‘ace’ label recently interested me.  One of its main points,    that you cannot say there is an ace on every team.  Just because they are the #1 starter doesn’t mean they have ace-level skills.  An ace should pitch 200 innings, with around 200 strikeouts with a 2.80-3.20 ERA.  If your below 2.80 then you’re doing even better then a “usual ace”. 

 Thanks for reading these “bullets”.  I might do these every once in a while so I can cover several topics in one post. 

#killthewin

A better way to evaluate pitchers needs to be established.  Well, I know that seems like a crappy statement but its true.  We all use either Wins and Losses or ERA, but it seems like but both have their flaws.  I had a conversation with a friend the other day about baseball sabermetrics.  When I brought up that I think Wins and Losses are useless, he quickly said no they aren’t.  He said, “Well it’s what gets a player to the hall of fame.”  I replied, “Do you think that is right?”  No response.  It seems like the Hall has misjudged players in this manner, by mostly picking them by their Win-Loss records. 

 

First, I introduce a nice stat but nowhere near what we need to replace the win.  Game Score, a Bill James stat is a nice tool.  It has no formula, and it is very simple to find.

 

1.  Start with 50 points.

2.  Add one point for each out recorded, so three points for every complete innings pitched.

3.  Add two points for each inning completed after the fourth.

4.  Add one point for each strikeout recorded.

5.  Subtract two points for each hit allowed.

6.  Subtract four points for each earned run allowed.

7.  Subtract two points for each unearned run allowed.

8.  Subtract one point for each walk.

 

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) one of my personal favorites is also a better stat then Wins and Losses.  If you want a better description of it here is a link. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

 

I hope to soon attempt to make a stat indicating whether a pitcher deserves a “win” or not. 

 

Also remember Brian Kenny’s motto #killthewin